Posts will usually have a word I want to talk about. Everything else is usually bull-cream.
Friday, June 3, 2011
Probability.
Okay, you've probably got tired of these things at school.
and this post might piss you off.
For those who has a sliight probability of throwing up at serious words, please don't, I'll
probably make this post as easy as possible.
now. Probability.
What is it? Guess.
Yeah you did right. It's kind of guessing.
As our lives becomes more and more complicating, some smartasses mathmaticans began to think "what if we express something that might happen as some kind of rate or number?".
Usually, in math subjects you might see probability go from at least 0 to at most 1.
And you'll find yourself throwing dice or flipping coins.
Or in many places, people say 0~100% , like some people have a XX%of dying, bla bla bla
Now there are some important stuffs about probability.
-(Independence) if you see this word, it means that EVERY time you do something that has a probability, it has NOTHING, and NOTHING related to the one you did the same thing before.
For example, when you're throwing dices, (unless the dice is loaded, which would piss me off) having one for about 7 times a row DOES NOT mean that you could get one again next time.
Just because you've lost money at a casino doesn't mean that you might win your goodies back.
Just because you've survived a coin flip won't save your ass next time you flip that "lucky coin"
(yeah, I mean you, Two Face)
when you think about it, it's just obvious as that, but unfortunately, many people forget this simple principle right when their sitting at the slots or staring at a dealer's sniggering face(and of course, money goes bye bye)
-now about that independence, if many "independent" events happen at once, the probability is not the addition, it's the multiplcation.
For example, even if you have a probability of 90% of guessing the right choice,
getting sweet grades on a final exam or pop quiz won't be that high(let's say there are 10 questions, then 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 == 0.3486 ===>about 35% of getting every question right. Fat chance consider that you had 90% individually, right? )
-every now and then, if you're lucky, you might get something like aces in a row. But remember, if you keep on mess with probability, it will become closer to the original probability.
For example, normally many casinos have a 55% chance of the dealer winning and 45%chance of the player winning. Even if you got some early wins, if you keep on gambling(man I'm on fire! crap) you eventually and WILL LOSE.
-last if the probability is not zero, (even the slightest chance, even the most ridiculous event) it CAN HAPPEN. Actually, I've read an article about a person wrote his ten lottery tickets the same, and he won second prize! There's even a case where a ebony child was born in a caucassian family (wait a minute, that not my.......)
Anyway people, have a nice day and good luck gambling!
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Very detailed. Great post.
ReplyDeleteNice post, not to sound arrogant or anything, but I'm surprised how a lot of people don't understand this concept.
ReplyDeleteNice explanation.
ReplyDeleteIn a game I play there's a 60% chance of increasing item stats. If someone fails it, they begin to BAWWWW THAT IT"S RIGGED.
pisses me off.
nice explanation, already knew most of this though because I had a game theory course at my college. pretty stupid how most people don't know this though
ReplyDeletea great explanation on probability, even though I do believe in some luck
ReplyDeleteThis article made me brainwashed
ReplyDeleteI won at 50% odds 16 times in a row once
ReplyDeleteYup. Probability is sometimes baffling. Better to rig the odds rather than to leave it all to chance. :P
ReplyDeleteThis post had a 50% chance of boring me...
ReplyDeleteDidn't though.
Ugh, I hate how people don't seem to understand something as basic as this, generally in item drop rates where they don't seem to understand there's a chance they'll never get the item they're after.
ReplyDeleteAwesome site brah keep up the good work
ReplyDeletewow that clears up things for me
ReplyDeleteHaha, title reminds me of southpark.
ReplyDeleteI often look at sports betting as rolling the dice with probability
ReplyDeleterock paper scissors is in a lot of ways what life is like.
ReplyDeletesite looking spiffy man
ReplyDeleteops already commented
Mr. Detail, huh? :D
ReplyDeletelike ur blog, keep it up!
Statistics :P first and second year of studies... what plesant memories
ReplyDeleteI sometimes win at blackjack by doubling my last bet, win or lose, to a certain point. You have to come to the table with a lot of money, ready to lose, but you can win pretty big too.
ReplyDeleteGlad SOMEONE can explain it in words basic enough for most people. Even many highschoolers now don't get that. It's sad.
ReplyDelete