Friday, June 3, 2011


Head's I win, head's.........what?

Okay, you've probably got tired of these things at school.

and this post might piss you off.

For those who has a sliight probability of throwing up at serious words, please don't, I'll

probably make this post as easy as possible.

now. Probability.

What is it? Guess.

Yeah you did right. It's kind of guessing.

As our lives becomes more and more complicating, some smartasses mathmaticans began to think "what if we express something that might happen as some kind of rate or number?".

Usually, in math subjects you might see probability go from at least 0 to at most 1.
And you'll find yourself throwing dice or flipping coins.

Or in many places, people say 0~100% , like some people have a XX%of dying, bla bla bla

Now there are some important stuffs about probability.

-(Independence) if you see this word, it means that EVERY time you do something that has a probability, it has NOTHING, and NOTHING related to the one you did the same thing before.
For example, when you're throwing dices, (unless the dice is loaded, which would piss me off) having one for about 7 times a row DOES NOT mean that you could get one again next time.

Just because you've lost money at a casino doesn't mean that you might win your goodies back.
Just because you've survived a coin flip won't save your ass next time you flip that "lucky coin"
(yeah, I mean you, Two Face)
when you think about it, it's just obvious as that, but unfortunately, many people forget this simple principle right when their sitting at the slots or staring at a dealer's sniggering face(and of course, money goes bye bye)

-now about that independence, if many "independent" events happen at once, the probability is not the addition, it's the multiplcation.
For example, even if you have a probability of 90% of guessing the right choice,
getting sweet grades on a final exam or pop quiz won't be that high(let's say there are 10 questions, then 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 * 0.9 == 0.3486 ===>about 35% of getting every question right. Fat chance consider that you had 90% individually, right? )

-every now and then, if you're lucky, you might get something like aces in a row. But remember, if you keep on mess with probability, it will become closer to the original probability.
For example, normally many casinos have a 55% chance of the dealer winning and 45%chance of the player winning. Even if you got some early wins, if you keep on gambling(man I'm on fire! crap) you eventually and WILL LOSE.

-last if the probability is not zero, (even the slightest chance, even the most ridiculous event) it CAN HAPPEN. Actually, I've read an article about a person wrote his ten lottery tickets the same, and he won second prize! There's even a case where a ebony child was born in a caucassian family (wait a minute, that not my.......)

Anyway people, have a nice day and good luck gambling!


  1. Nice post, not to sound arrogant or anything, but I'm surprised how a lot of people don't understand this concept.

  2. Nice explanation.
    In a game I play there's a 60% chance of increasing item stats. If someone fails it, they begin to BAWWWW THAT IT"S RIGGED.

    pisses me off.

  3. nice explanation, already knew most of this though because I had a game theory course at my college. pretty stupid how most people don't know this though

  4. a great explanation on probability, even though I do believe in some luck

  5. This article made ​​me brainwashed

  6. I won at 50% odds 16 times in a row once

  7. Yup. Probability is sometimes baffling. Better to rig the odds rather than to leave it all to chance. :P

  8. This post had a 50% chance of boring me...
    Didn't though.

  9. Ugh, I hate how people don't seem to understand something as basic as this, generally in item drop rates where they don't seem to understand there's a chance they'll never get the item they're after.

  10. Awesome site brah keep up the good work

  11. wow that clears up things for me

  12. Haha, title reminds me of southpark.

  13. I often look at sports betting as rolling the dice with probability

  14. rock paper scissors is in a lot of ways what life is like.

  15. site looking spiffy man
    ops already commented

  16. Mr. Detail, huh? :D
    like ur blog, keep it up!

  17. Statistics :P first and second year of studies... what plesant memories

  18. I sometimes win at blackjack by doubling my last bet, win or lose, to a certain point. You have to come to the table with a lot of money, ready to lose, but you can win pretty big too.

  19. Glad SOMEONE can explain it in words basic enough for most people. Even many highschoolers now don't get that. It's sad.